Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell:
Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference “in the very, very near future” to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia. “I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District,” Boswell said yesterday. “I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard.” Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.
However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win. Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit. We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him.
Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.
Once upon a time (before 1994), this was a district that William Natcher held for four decades. He never raised a dime in any of his campaigns, nor did he spend much money to get reelected.
I remember Weaver running a hard race against Lewis. Just guessing, but is KY-2 one of those southern districts that votes heavily for Republicans in federal elections, but has a strong Democratic base for local elections? I always wonder about the disconnect in those areas, what keeps voters from making the leap to straight partisan voting?
At any rate, this is good news. As a state senator, Boswell should have a larger base of support to drawn on than Weaver did. Even if we dont win this race, running competitive races in R+13 areas keeps Republicans on the defensive, and means they cant focus on top-tier races.
One more thing: if we can get elected officials to run in areas as Republican as KY-2, there’s no excuse ever for not at least having a challenger in any district.
Provided this guy is another Jim Marshall, in which case, what would be the fucking point?
I think this district would be easier to crack than the President votes indicate. Breshear only lost four of the 21 counties in the district, and even then, he still got over 40 percent in each one. Plus, Mongiardo did decently in the district in his 2004 Senate campaign. I would provide more specifics, but I don’t have the time right now.
On a side note, I’ve noticed that the map of the 2007 Kentucky Governor’s race shows a big clumping of counties that supported Fletcher by respectable margins. Other than a few scattered counties elsewhere, these are the only counties Fletcher won. Additionally, this area is divided between three Congressional districts. If we could gain control of the redistricting process, we could pack this area into one or two districts, we could feasibly turn a 4 to 2 deficit into a 4 to 2 advantage or even a 5 to 1 advantage.
is much more Democratic at its roots than the Kerry/Bush numbers suggest. Also, this is a district where I would expect Hillary to do relatively well compared to John Kerry. She wont win it, but I would expect her to get a solid 42%, 43% of the vote, providing a good base for Boswell.
This district is pretty much a swing district in state elections. Steve Beshear got 56% here in the governors race, Dan Mongiardo got 45% in 2004, Ben Chandler got 43% in 2003(about what Hillary should get), and Scott Baesler got 48% here in 1998. This is definately our best chance to pick up a district in Kentucky.
I hope they find challengers in KY-01, in the western-most and southern-most counties, where that same map shows many surprisingly deep blue counties. The Repub incumbent, Ed Whitfield, is a protege of Mitch McConnell, so next year would be a great time to take him down.
And in KY-05, the Appalachian district, Hal Rogers (R) richly deserves a takedown as well. Maybe Greg Stumbo can move into this race, where he served as a State Representative for many years, since he seems to be getting eased out of the Senate contest.
for us is that Lewis has always struggled to raise money. He only had 312,000 in cash-on-hand last quarter, so he will not have a big financial advantage over Boswell. Given the NRCC is still in debt, there will be few national resources to help Lewis, but we will have plenty to help Boswell. While this is a conservative district, Beshear won 18 of the 21 counties in the district, so it is not an impossible task to win here.